In 2007, Apple introduced the iPhone. It was a revolution in personal computing. In five years, it has achieved what was once unthinkable: Apple towers above Microsoft and Google in revenues, profits and industry influence.
Microsoft has yet to recover. Google, to their credit, moved rapidly to embrace mobile and to copy iPhone. They got one piece wrong.
iPhone quickly went from revolutionary computing device to app phone. This is the equivalent of the PC embracing the desktop metaphor. It is the primary consensual hallucination that we all accept and embrace for personal computing.
The desktop metaphor ruled the PC. The app metaphor rules -- and will continue to rule for years at least -- the smartphone.
Google has tried desperately to have it both ways. To follow Apple, but to preserve their lucrative 'web-based' services, in mobile form.
Android requires deep integration with Planet Google. Gmail. Google calendar. Search. Google Play and more and more with each passing day. But these typically are developed with a web-first mindset. This will never succeed.
As the world is going mobile, rapidly, the mobile has already gone app. Apps replace search. Apps replace services. Apps simply work better. The app can be optimized for the device, for the screen, for the hardware, for the functions.
The web, as we know it, can never match the app. Instead of a "Google search" app there should be, say, ten Google search apps -- spanning various important search needs.
Google spread Android as far and wide as possible. This strategy has paid off in terms of market share, but not in terms of revenues. The reason is because we don't want Google web services, we want apps. And apps work better when they can focus on the particular OS and device. This is not possible with Android.
This chart reveals how badly fragmented Android remains -- and suggests how its apps, which are the new power -- can never match those on the highly focused iPhone:

TechCrunch has the nasty details:
That there are gobs of Android devices floating around out there isn’t exactly a shocker, but data like this really drives home the issue. With so many devices running so many versions of Android with who knows many carrier- and manufacturer-mandated tweaks onboard, how is a developer supposed to make sure that all of their users gets a consistent experience? They can’t, unless they’re willing to test like crazy.
Google chairman Eric Schmidt famously downplayed the term “fragmentation” at this year’s CES, suggesting instead that people call it “differentiation.” It’s hard not to agree with sentiment on some level — after all, one of Android’s key strengths is how easily it fits into different niches and price points. But according to him, as long as every Android user is able to use the same apps, there’s no problem here
That strikes me as a rather shortsighted way of looking at it. Downloading and installing apps is one thing, but what I think really counts — the user experience — can still vary from hardware configuration to hardware configuration. Not a day goes by without new Android hardware (or rumors of new Android hardware) making the rounds — hell, just an hour or so ago, the Wall Street Journal reported that Google will soon be filling out the new Devices section in the Google Play Store with new, unlocked “Nexus” hardware thanks to cooperation from up to five hardware manufacturers.
And of course, fragmentation isn’t just a hardware issue — the OSM post points out that the two most used versions of Android now only account for 75% of the devices they surveyed, down from 90% last year, yet another issue for developers to grapple with.
"Differentiation" of devices -- personal computers -- may be fine when all of them point to Google/web. In an app world, however, they do not. They never will. The app demands specialization, focus -- and optimization.
This can *never* occur under the existing Android business model.
It does not matter if you (or Google) prefer the 'web' to the app or if you still believe in 'open' vs closed or if you enjoy taking advantage of different form factors and hardware specs. It does not matter if Windows Phone 'live tiles" construct should rule our smartphone interfaces, nor perhaps that it might had Microsoft introduced these in, say, 2008.
The smartphone is the new personal computer and the app powers the smartphone. It will be thus for at least the next five years. Apple will likely *extend* its lead over its rivals during this time.
Of course, this is not merely bad news for Google Android, but for Facebook. Facebook was born before the iPhone. They made a terrible strategic decision to not offer their own smartphone operating system.
Locked out, they have sought refuge in 'open' 'web' 'standards', hoping to use these standards and their reach as a counter to iOS and Android. This is doomed to failure.
A great post from Mobtest:
So what is wrong with the iOS app?
- app is slow
- inconsistent information notification icons say there are new messages or responses, actual window does not show anything new.
- app is slower than mobile web site while everybody is used to speedy apps, the Facebook mobile web site is faster than iOS app, and offers almost the same functionality.
- tons of other bugs scrambled views, photo upload, text boxes disappear, no sharing.
The author provides solid reasons for why Facebook has chosen their particular path for their mobile/iOS app efforts. They are good reasons, thought fundamentally wrong. Because the app must be optimized for the smartphone. There can be no compromise on this. Integrated as deeply as possible with the OS, with the camera, with the location of the device, with the personal physical and virtual connections of the user, with the current and historic searches containted within that device.
iOS and Android will continue to do all they can to lock Facebook out of all the data that smartphones offer.
And web standards will simply never replace the optimized app.
With their purchase of Motorola and their continued abandonment of the "open" web and hints of offering a single device type and updated OS across carriers and handset makers, Google at least understands the reality of their situation. I believe Facebook continues to fool themselves into believing that the web will save them.
The smartphone is the computer. The app is the means with which we access this computer. Ignore that at your financial peril.