At least, this guy with Fast Company -- which, miraculously, still exists -- claims:

The iPhone had finally met its rivals in the form of Nokia’s Lumia 800 and 900, equipped with Windows 7’s Metro UI.

Let me be clear, Nokia’s phones are better than Apple’s, both in terms of physical and digital design. Supple, amiable, vibrant, and durable, the Lumia 800 and the slightly larger 900 are the new kings of smartphone design. The body has an original signature corner that combines two forms: the vertical tubular main form meets a rounded window for the screen. It’s a fresh look at a detail many mobile phone designers tackled before. The Apple halo effect forced many design teams toward the familiar solution: a two-dimensional rounded form surrounding a screen. Nokia was brave enough to forge its own path to arriving at highly effective way of differentiating the Lumia from the rest of the pack.

Agree?

Me? A little.

I think the Lumia 800 is a thing of beauty. I prefer Windows 7 to Android.

But, better than iPhone? Beat the iPhone?

The market will decide.

However, I think this merely illuminates a larger issue. "Beating" the iPhone probably is the wrong strategy.

Apple makes so much off iPhone so obviously everyone is gunning for those revenues/profits. But, Apple controls both hardware and software. What are Nokia and Microsoft going to do? Split the revenues?

How will they do that, exctly? What happens when Microsoft makes, say, 90% of the profits from their platform -- Windows Phone -- while Nokia ekes out 10% or less?

Will that last?

More importantly, of course, is that attacking the iPhone, which may not be at all successful, may not be the right strategy. Both Nokia and Microsoft have one thing in common: deep within their DNA is the value of scale. They are built for owning the global market: in feature phones and in PC software.

Can they survive and support their business if they 'only' capture 10-20% of the market?

Is this for real? It seems like a real company.

They are incorporating "gaze" along with touch and mouse to control the information on your screen.

Any "Windows Metro Style Apps Developers" wish to talk about their experience with the "pre beta version of Windows 8" that is now available, you may post your thoughts and analysis here.

Hat tip to @trojankitten for letting me know this was now available:

http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/apps/br229516

Back in 2009, both Windows and Office went on my Technology Deathwatch list. Looking at the potential for smartphones, how smartphones and the mobile web would remake 'personal computing', I estimated that by no later than 2016, Windows and Office would be marginalized.

Nothing I've written on this site has generated so much negativity and name calling. 

You're stupid! Those make billions! There are a billion PCs in the world and almost everyone has Windows -- and Office! Did I say you were stupid!

Yeah, yeah. I'm the crazy one. Except, it's only mid-2011 and check out Asymco's post today:

Platform year-on-year growth was Windows: +1.3%, OS X: +26%, iOS: +170%. Android growth cannot yet be measured since Android tablets have not been on the market for more than 1 year.

The picture that emerges is that while Windows continues to be dominant with 84% of units sold in the last quarter, the growth belongs to tablets which captured about 90% of it. If Windows remains marginal on tablets, the “PC market” will likely tip away from Microsoft in two years (depending on how quickly Apple can build iPads.)

Microsoft is making the commitment to move Windows to a tablet form factor but they are doing it while retaining the user interaction model of a desktop. This may or may not work but they are also conceding that a separate experience is also necessary. By rejecting the notion that a mobile OS alone can do the job, they are essentially building a “hybrid” tablet/laptop/desktop product which may be challenging to use but preserve their presence in the form factor.

2016. Windows and Office will be irrelevant.

You've probably all seen the US smartphone sales (shipped) numbers for Q3 2010 already. Fine. If not, a snapshot.

Can anyone tell me, who in God's name are the people who represent the 3% that bought Windows Mobile? Hell's bells, even Microsoft is embarrassed with that OS. They are killling it. Next week is their completely new platform. Windows Mobile sucks.

Government offices with a Windows Mobile line-item in their budget about to expire? I sure can't figure it out.

HTC sales are expected to be up 78% this year over last, according to Bloomberg. The Android hoard is kicking ass and taking no prisoners around the world and HTC, which has shrewdly, aggressively embraced the Android OS, how has an astounding 39% global Android market share.

You may prefer iPhone or Nokia or Blackberry or something else. However, it appears that little stands in the way of Android becoming the planet's dominant smartphone platform. It's powerful. It has the backing of one of the biggest (tech) companies in the world, is advancing rapidly, is embraced by multiple handset makers.

Google is "all in" for Android. Their apps, plus, uh, Google Apps, plus the money, the Android Marketplace, the willingness to buy content and content distribution platforms make this formidable in the smartphone wars.

iPhone will definitely steal some Android sales once it moves to Verizon. But, the iPhone strategy of iOS device margins then ecosystem then market share will prevent it from ultimately being the market leader. The biggest losses I still believe will be by Nokia and Microsoft. Both are built for scale. Both have operating systems that are not as good as the top contenders, Android and iOS. Nokia will almost certainly need to cut thousands. If the new CEO cannot guide the company well, I expect Nokia to suffer a Nortel-like fate. It will be eaten alive. Microsoft's problems are also significant, though far less lethal. They have the money and resources to fight a long, bloody smartphone war. They have a battering ram of high-priced lawyers with nothing to do; all of whom can be used in Microsoft's overarching fear-uncertainty-doubt campaign against Android.

Still, Android is at least a year ahead. Google now has just as much money to spend as Microsoft. Google needs mobile just as badly as Microsoft, if it wants to survive as a leading tech concern. Handset makers, always looking to shave pennies, do benefit from using Android's 'free' operating system. Plus, Microsoft's highly profitable strategy of licensing its OS may have finally caught up with them. By not controlling the hardware and software completely, like Apple, they've simply never been able to develop the healthy, deep, high-margin ecosystem that Apple has with: iTunes, App Store, Apple TV, iPod, iPhone, iPad, Macintosh. Windows+Zune+Xbox is powerful, just not as powerful as what Apple can offer to individual users. And at scale, Google offers a superior value proposition.

Starting from essentially zero, Microsoft's new Windows Phone 7 can capture a health 5-10% of the global smartphone market share. If everything goes well. But this is their ceiling. And, as I've said before, Microsoft is a company whose DNA *demands* they control the market. Even where they are a healthy #2 or #3, as in search or gaming, for example, they will spend ridiculous amounts of money to kill off the competition. This will not work in the smartphone wars. Windows Phone will top out at 10%. Management will continue to hurl resources, like sending out thousands of grunts, only to be mowed down by superior advanced weaponry.

It's hard not to believe that Microsoft and Nokia will find solace with one another.

A year ago I started my TECHNOLOGY RANKINGS list and included a "dinosaur watch" list as well. Windows was one of the first to earn this shameful distinction. There was much mockery of me for this. But, let me say this. Yes, I was right. I never had any doubts. But, the larger takeaway for you, dear reader, is why.

I was right about Windows (and others on the list) because smartphones and the mobile web are remaking the computing, communications and content industries (hint: and everything else). I did not place Windows nor any other company on that list because I didn't like them or the product. Rather, I use factors that look at just how smartphones are and will alter daily life and how this changes everything. In this new world, Windows cannot survive. A lot of what we've come to know and love (or not) cannot survive.

Now, a year later, and, gosh I hope you didn't buy $MSFT thinking it was undervalued, the new new reality has become obvious even to organizations like CNN:

Six months after Apple's (AAPL, Fortune 500) release of the iPad, Microsoft still has virtually no presence in the tablet market. And its strategy for taking on Apple -- Windows 7 on a tablet, rather than a tablet-specific operating system -- is leaving potential partners cold. Lenovo's technology director recently told PC Mag that his company won't be building around the platform: "The challenge with Windows 7 is that it's based on the same paradigm as 1985 -- it's really an interface that's optimized for a mouse and keyboard."

Then there's the epicenter of the Microsoft universe: Windows. Microsoft likes to point out that its operating system is its biggest consumer brand and Windows 7 has been selling rapidly. Its new version has sold 240 million licenses in a year, making it the fastest-selling OS in Microsoft's history.

But Windows' momentum isn't from consumers. In fact, consumers are a worry for the Windows division, because they have dramatically slowed their purchases of PCs in recent months.

Rather, the fast sales are coming from businesses, which significantly delayed their purchases of new Windows licenses because Windows Vista was bug-ridden mess. Then the recession hit. A years-overdue corporate PC refresh cycle is now happening all at once.