I can't imagine iPhone or most Android phones ever being so slow -- on a device/system level -- that I would not use Twitter, for example, or Facebook, or not check the weather.

So this Windows Phone "challenge" is inherently bogus.

But, I think, effective. Windows Phone leverages a rather obvious, capable, step-by-step usability construct that I think makes it a solid OS. In fact, in case I've not mentioned this before, Windows Phone strikes me as the best version of the Blackberry OS ported to a touchscreen.

Which is kinda why I think Blackberry may truly be doomed.

Anyway, "Windows Phone challenge" silliness aside, this video and Microsoft's efforts at CES certainly should help, and they need all the help they can get. Although I must say, hoping to pick off some iPhone customer with a Nokia Windows Phone phone probably isn't going to accomplish much.

That iPhone user base is pretty damn solid, and unlike Apple, neither Microsoft nor Nokia can live comfortably off a market share of 20%, for example. 

Okay, enough with the caveats. On a superficial level, this works. Good for Microsoft.

As Velvet Underground sang, 'well I guess that I just don't know.'

We can never know what the smartphone wars would be like if Microsoft had offered Windows Phone 7.5 in 2009, say, and teamed with Nokia to offer the Lumia 900 at the same time as iPhone 4, as was possible. But I believe that had they done so, than the future fortunes of Microsoft, and Nokia, and Apple and Google Android would be significantly, possibly radically and permanantly altered.

As it is, they did not, and Nokia has contracted beyond all recognition. But CEO Stepen Elop is still talking smack in a recent interview in Wired:

If you want to characterise the fundamental shift in the industry over the last so many years, it used to be the case that Nokia's XYZ product competed against ABC product. Now, it's about all of the collective services, and everything around them, that constitute the value that's being offered. One has to operate on that basis. That was a fundamental element in our decision to pursue a strategy with Microsoft around Windows Phone. Essentially, we were making an ecosystem decision. 

This is accepted wisdom by everyone but is, in fact, not a fact. It is opinion. Perhaps "ecosystem" and "platform" are what carry the day and despite having all the pieces, way ahead of Apple, Nokia's platform was not as good. That said, on a *device* level, iPhone destroyed the best Nokia could offer. On a device level, Android overwhelmed all that Nokia offered.

Elop is selling his platfom strategy here, nothing more. Either way, it pins Nokia down. If they can't win on the device level, as I am beginning to suspect, and the Windows Phone platform is, so far, all potential and nothing realized, than Nokia's days are numbered.

Which most of us already knew.

And this is why I say rather boldly these are the first real Windows Phones. Our best innovation, our best industrial design, our best cameras, our best software, whatever it is, is being focused on the Windows Phone platform. Unambiguously. We're not doing a little bit of everything. This is what we're doing.

He speaks boldly and he carries a pretty sweet stick. The latest Nokia Windows Phone phone is the best there's ever been, no doubt. But it's still not available, is it? How many iPhone 4S's did Apple sell today? Will they sell tomorrow? The day after? 

There is a very real chance that even *after* the Lumia 900 is available, iPhone 4S will sell in a month what Nokia's top of the line Windows Phone sells in a year. 

Bold talk wan't help sales, nor save Nokia.

We have to introduce people to the fact that this experience is different than what Android and iPhone are doing. It's not a static grid of application icons. It's an entirely different experience.

But there are other steps you have to take. You have to familiarise the consumer with this. The salespeople in the [US network supplier] AT&T stores, for example.

The smartphone is an app phone. Doesn't matter your views on this, it's completely true. How long will it take Microsoft and Nokia to educate the consumer? Two quarters? A year? Even if, for the sake of argument, the experience is better?

How do you go from people who don't have a general awareness to a position where they actually try it? If we can get there, then we're going to win.

In other words, Elop needs a great deal of sales and marketing to make this happen. Nokia doesn't have that money, not anymore, not in the US. He has made his company, a grand mobile phone provider to the world, a parasite able to survive only at the well being and tolerance of host Microsoft.

One of the great strengths that Nokia brings is our global footprint. We have a huge reach, and more boots on the ground helping developers around the world than any other mobile company out there. I meet with developers in India, China and Brazil and Mexico. I have met a lot of developers who have been developing for Symbian and our low-end mobile phone products. People who have worked in those environments are anxious to begin pursuing Windows Phone. Now, we're on a program of rolling out country by country by country. So that problem is being addressed as we continue to roll out.

Honestly, I'm not sure if this is boilerplate bold CEO talk, boilerplate CEO duplicity or if Elop is utterly clueless. He has already stated that the smartphone world -- and Nokia -- are in a war of ecosystems: iPhone, Android and, he hopes, Windows Phone. That Symbian developer in India he met with, or those buy-for-hire coders in China one of his people talked with, don't give a shit about him or Nokia or Symbian. Or Windows Phone.

There's more money in iPhone app development and Android app development. By far. And being a Symbian developer, whether in Mexico or Brazil, say, if they are going to develop for a new ecosystem, there's little reason to believe their (first) (or second) choice will be Windows Phone.

Maybe Microsoft might want to re-think that whole 'we're finished with CES' stance. Windows Phone got a lot of love. Including this long wet kiss from Wired:

There’s a curious thing happening in the smartphone space at this year’s CES. Two Windows Phone devices — the HTC Titan II and the Nokia Lumia 900 — are the most hyped, talked-about phones at the show. Yeah, that’s right: Windows Phones.

This could be a good sign for Microsoft, whose critically acclaimed OS has had a hell of a time trying to make an impression with smartphone users.

Headlines like “Why Windows Phone is Making Waves at CES” and “How Nokia’s Lumia 900 Windows Phone Won CES Before It Even Started” are key indicators of the excitement surrounding Windows Phone’s big leap into relevance in the smartphone market. Before the show even started, Nokia’s next-gen Lumia handset, in particular, was on the receiving end of a tremendous amount of anticipation and praise. And for good reason.

I like Windows Phone. I wish it well. But...

Why must every critic say that, despite the meager sales, Windows Phone is "critically acclaimed"? Because, it hasn't been. Critics have panned it. Unfairly in many cases, I think, but panned it nonetheless.

The writer is repeating a false meme.

The *potential* is there. So far, Microsoft has fallen woefully short of that potential.

Why must "critics" behave like such damn sheep? Don't toss in shit cause it makes you sound like you're part of the industry, or that you've done any fucking research. Windows Phone is hot at CES. That's your story. Run with it.

Some (more) quality games coming (soon) to Windows Phone. The nicely edited video below says as much. Only, here's the thing. Microsoft is so far behind iPhone and Android that, while I can understand the need for a massive marketing push, they need to be careful about anything that even smacks of misleading.

I didn't time this clip but it sure seemed as if cut scenes were far disproportionate to actual game playing.

It's CES time! The giant CES consumer electronics trade show is underway in Las Vegas. As is typical, that means a full-court press from Microsoft public relations, which means you will be exposed to many loving, glowing articles about Microsoft and all its cool products for the next several days.

Today's example, from Forbes: Five Reasons Why Microsoft's Windows Phone Will Make A Big Splash In The Smartphone Market

"Here are five reasons why Microsoft is going to edge its way into the smartphone market in 2012."

Well, let's just see about that now, shall we? After all, I think Microsoft has fiddled while the global smartphone wars have burned, and the results bear this out. Almost no one on the planet, outside of the tiny burg of Redmond, Washington, has actually purchased a Windows Phone phone. 

Nonetheless, I remain hopeful. Microsoft is a leading American company, after all. I believe smartphones are the future and, while it's true America can't actuallly build the damn things, we could, should Microsoft succeed, control the top four smartphone platforms on the planet (iOS, Android, Amazon Android, Windows Phone), along with the most powerful non-Chinese social media platforms (Twitter, Facebook).

Here are Forbes' five reasons, presented in their original overly capitalized form:

1. Windows Phone Has A Totally Unique UI
2. Originality Means Fewer Forays Into The Patent Wars
3. Uniformity Across All Devices and Carriers
4. Zune Is Baked Right Into the Operating System
5. Xbox Live Gaming Support

Well, it's five, at least. They got that much right. But let's examine in a bit more detail:

"Windows Phone has a totally unique UI"

True. I've said before that the Windows Phone UI is essentially the Blackberry UI well ported to a full touchscreen device. I've also said, however, that the world has embraced the app phone. The Windows UI, for all its strengths, pushes a variety of real-time information and access points to the 'home' screen while at the same time diminishing the presence of the app.

I'm convinced this will appeal to a segment of the current and potential user base. I'm not convinced, however, that such a segment will ever be more than about 5%. Microsoft will not accept 5%. Nor 10%. Possibly not even 20%. They don't even understand how to accept such a small share of a personal computing operating platform market.

"Originality Means Fewer Forays Into The Patent Wars"

Well, perhaps. Microsoft will certainly sue others who (may) infringe on their patents. Microsoft has a stellar reputation for spending on R&D. So, yes, this probably means something positive. It's not as if we should expect some judge of some ruling body in some foreign country to do much harm to the Windows Phone platform. That does not mean, however, that this will lead anyone to choose Windows Phone. Microsoft already collects licensing fees from numerous Android handset makers. It's free money, true, even if little more than lunch money for Microsoft. But it has yet to lead to an actual sale.

"Uniformity Across All Devices and Carriers"

The reason the never truly open Android gets more closed every day is because of all the very real frustrations of Android users unable to get the latest version of Android -- or use it -- or use the same apps or have the latest, bestest Google services. Because any device maker can ignore the latest and bestest once they have completed a sale. Microsoft demands *all* Windows Phone devices meet certain specifications. As Forbes says, this should help sales, at least over the long-term.  

Except that it may not. With Google's acquisition of Motorola, Android users can likely take comfort in knowing that Google requires every (generation of) Moto devices to adhere to strict standards. Any Android handset maker can set itself apart from all others by pledging the same. 

"Zune Is Baked Right Into the Operating System"

Well now Forbes is just fucking with us. Next.

"Xbox Live Gaming Support"

Not relevant. While in theory, Microsoft could make a better, more current version of Xbox Live available for its Windows Phone platform, the company has no rational choice but to offer the very best Xbox Live support to iPhone and Android. These smartphone platforms -- which are also their own gaming systems -- have sold in the hundreds of millions. Soon, the number will be over 1 billion, then over 2 billion, etc. Microsoft can't ignore those numbers unless they want to make Xbox irrelevant.

Verdict: Go test drive a Windows Phone. I think you will like it. But I suspect Microsoft will spend more on Windows Phone (and its progeny) than they have spent on Bing and online services the past decade. And come away with an even smaller market share.

Will Microsoft succeed in the smartphone wars? Or (remain) irrelevant? Is the smartphone, as Microsoft hopes and believes, but one satellite within the personal computing solar system? Or is the smartphone the future of personal computing, the new paradigm?

I write on these questions often. But for this post, I'll let two regular commenters take the podium.

Yes, making it easy for anyone to comment means that haters and fanboys, assholes and bombthrowers, small-minded agitators and corporate flaks will have still another platform to hurl their nonsense. But, one of the very best parts of this site is the commenters. 

Earlier this week I wrote about Windows Phone. I think the entire Windows Phone strategy and anti-app nature of the operating system doom the platform to less-than-Bing global market share.

Time will tell if I am right. However, two commenters offered up a far more robust view:[unedited; but I have bolded what I think are the best points]

 

anobserver

The important point is that Microsoft is not fighting the battle to win the mobile space, but the war to control the computing space. Just like Google and Apple -- but unlike RIM, Nokia (which were limited to the mobile space and could not enter the whole computing space) or HP (which did not understand the issue -- see the WebOS and PC debacle).

This war is fought on many fronts, not just smartphones. Cloud? Microsoft is in it with such things as Office 365 and Storage Spaces. Search? Microsoft has Bing. Enterpriseinfrastructure? Check. Gaming? Xbox. Patents? Microsoft quietly won against Android. 

Of course, there are those other rumors about Microsoft gaining access to the huge Nokia patent portfolio, or even buying parts of Nokia outright in 2012. 

In essence, Windows 8 is the weapon which Microsoft hopes will help reach a decisive turning point -- with an integrated desktop, laptop, tablet and phone environment, with compatibility with a massive installed base of Windows software.

Apple is also fighting this war, successfully, but there are retrenchments: it has exited the enterprise server business, and its latest revision of Final Cut is already leading media companies to shy away from the Apple environment for their video processing needs (a core, very loyal customer base so far). It has limitations in the Internet offering (which search engine, mailing, shared document or video download system are you using? My guess: one of Google's many instantiations).

All this depends on Microsoft delivering, and it will really happen only one year from now. I already said this was a big "if".

See, if this is a war, consider that Microsoft is not agile. It is not a brilliant tactician. It relies one weapon really -- the artillery of Windows and Office. But it has grit. It can send divisions to occupy a small territory that it considers important, taking huge losses for a long time before becoming solidly entrenched, just like with the Xbox. It can try its standard procedure, fail (like with Vista), and come again with better artillery pieces -- it will not give up like HP.

Now it has sent its WP division to foray into the mobile space where it is getting battered. Meanwhile, Microsoft HQ is deliberately preparing an artillery barrage with a combined set of new generation weapons ranging from heavy howitzer to field mortar. 

If the last four years have taught us anything, is that incumbency is not a defense. We have seen:

1. The appearance of Apple in the mobile space, and the disappearance of Palm.

2. The rise of HTC and Samsung to prominence, and the parallel demise of Nokia and RIM.

3. The rise of touchscreen phones and of Android (after Apple).

4. The renaissance of tablets.

5. An unending see-saw between local apps, distributed cloud, and web.

Every single year since 2007 has seen something new take place and cards being reshuffled. Ido not think we can discount Microsoft yet -- not until Windows 8 has demonstrably failed.

 

Gandhi

If they are fighting the war to win the computing space, they are losing miserably.

Bing - failure

XBox - like Android, market share, but no profits

Microsoft has Windows and they have Office. They keep trying to jam these two offerings in to new markets, thinking they will succeed. Evidence so far is that they will not.

Apple retrenchment in the enterprise? Apple never was big in enterprise. But also keep in mind, they run the world's largest online stores. Their iCloud set up has just started. Apple has Mail and iCloud for email and shared docs, Siri to disintermediate online search, iTunes for video downloads.

Nokia has valuable patents, but who knows how many of them are FRAND, and which ones are proprietary. And who knows which ones Apple has licensed already.

If this is a war, and Windows 8 is their magic bullet, then i am afraid Microsoft is already failing. Last year, the hype was Windows 8 every where, all apps and applications running on all types of devices. Then they had to back track and say only certain apps and applications for certain devices, only certain interfaces for certain form factors.

So far, Windows 8 is vaporware. Smoke and mirrors. You yourself stated, a lot can happen in a year. You think will be Apple is sitting still allowing the competition to catch up?

In the five years since the first iPhone was introduced, Apple has 

Released and sold four more generations, each one outselling the previous one

Release 2 tablets that dominate the market

Release AppleTV, a "hobby," that dominates its particular niche

Release another platform in Siri

Released their own interpretation of cloud services

Released the next generation of the notebook in the Air

Created the phone and tablet app market, whcih it dominates

In the meantime, Microsoft has

Released XBox - a financial failure, plagued with failing devices requiring an expensive warranty extension

Vista - derided by many, but a profitable one

Windows 7

Office versions

Windows Phone 7 - flop so far

Windows 8 - smoke and mirrors so far.

Outside of Windows and Office, where has Microsoft made any money or any level of commercial success.

What the fuck is Steve Balmer doing? When is Windows 8 supposed to be out? this Fall. I bet it won't be released until Fall 2013, at the earliest. And if Windows 8 is released early, it will not sport most of the features that you tout and hope for like "with an integrated desktop, laptop, tablet and phone environment, with compatibility with a massive installed base of Windows software"

Except for Samsung, all the other Android makers are sucking wind, along with RIMM and Nokia. The renaissance in tablets is because of Apple, and only Apple is benefiting so far. No other tablet is making any headway against the iPad. We'll see how Kindle Fire does. There is no see saw between apps, cloud storage and web. The app is winning

 

anobserver

BSH: please delete the previous, mangled posting.

I do not expect to succeed at having fanboys get a nuanced view of the world, but I will nevertheless try a last time.

1. I do not particularly like Microsoft stuff, and I make a wide detour around WP devices. I am not hoping or praying for Microsoft's success (or Apple's, or Google's).

2. Nevertheless, I see that Microsoft has a plan, and it is a shrewd one.

3. I also see clearly that it is difficult to deliver on this plan. Didn't I say that first?

4. I also see clearly that Microsoft has very deep pockets, and the will to stick to its guns for a long time. This is a historical fact.

5. The fight is on every front of the computing world, and Microsoft is present (not necessarily dominant) on every front. 

6. The fight is fundamentally undecided at this stage -- as it has been for the last 4 years. Disruptions have been going on ceaselessly.

Now for some detailed remarks.

> XBox - like Android, market share, 

> but no profits

Attempting to deny other contenders the opportunity of market share and profits might be important as well. Besides learning about a market and acquiring competence organically.

The Entertainment&Devices division of Microsoft has been making a profit for years, by the way.

> Apple never was big in enterprise.

My point is that they seem to be losing the few, very loyal customers they had. Not good.

> Their iCloud set up has just started. 

Based on your logic, 2 years ago we would have pronounced Apple presence in cloud computing a dead end. After all, MobileMe was an utter failure... 

> Apple has Mail and iCloud for email 

> and shared docs, iTunes for video 

> downloads.

Yep. As I said, the fight is not for mobile, but for computing. Microsoft is present there as well. But it is Google which dominates (remember my question about which services you are actually using?)

> i am afraid Microsoft is already failing.

Never discount a major, healthy contender prematurely. 

And you are not afraid, but sound positively gleeful about it.

> Release AppleTV, a "hobby," that

> dominates its particular niche

So dominating a niche is proof of wide superiority?

> Released their own interpretation of

> cloud services

That is rubbish PR language. Every player has its "own interpretation" of cloud services. Where is the beef compared to Google and Amazon?

> I bet it won't be released until Fall 2013, 

> at the earliest.

You made several pronouncements that entail an unusual capacity to predict the future. Why don't you make a fortune speculating on Microsoft stock then?

> The renaissance in tablets is because 

> of Apple

Wrong. The renaissance was because of the Kindle -- a tablet for e-book and media consumption introduced successfully 3 years before Apple launched the iPad.

> The app is winning

Nope. There is a see-saw going on.

Remember: the first variant of the iPhone was not about apps (one could not even install them on the iPhone 2G), but the superior experience when browsing the Internet. This remains a major element in smartphone platforms (because who wants/can look for, install, and manage apps for every single service one wants to access?) Technology (HTML5 and all that) economics (apps development, versioning and management on several OS and OS versions is expensive) and the cloud (why should you need local apps if what you want to do is move them to the cloud?) are again moving in that direction -- although apps are at present all the rage.

And no, I do not expect Apple (or Google, or Amazon, or even starkly listing ships such as RIM or Nokia) to sit inactive while Microsoft deploys its guns.

No matter what happens, 2012 will be interesting.

 

Gandhi

Please, don't resort to name calling. I can think of plenty of names to call you as well, but shall refrain. Debate if you must, but name calling only serves to belittle your arguments.

Not going to go over every point you made, since we would be going in circles, but I will address this -

>You

made several pronouncements that entail an >unusual capacity to predict 

the future. Why don't >you make a fortune speculating on Microsoft stock 

>then?

I would, except MSFT has gone no where in the last decade.

My overall point is that I see nothing in Windows 8 that will enable Microsoft to regain its once dominant position. You think Microsoft will succeed, i think they won't. Everything announced so far is smoke and mirrors. And they seem to be backtracking even from their predicted plans. The greatest strategy is of no benefit if it cannot be implemented successfully. 

Microsoft seems to be putting all their eggs in the Windows 8 basket. If they succeed, they will be dominant once again. If they fail, they will coast along continue milking Windows and Office like IBM today does their mainframes and services. Not necessary a bad place to be for a corporation, but certainly not in the middle of the fight for the computing world, as you put it.

We'll see.

Great stuff. While I believe, and it admittedly tends to become faith-based, that the all computing, content and the entirety of the Internet will effectively collapse inside the smartphone -- and thus, the future of the smartphone is the future of computing -- this is a view that cannot be proven for years, at least.

Game on!

Can this possibly be true? Microsoft will drop $200 million in marketing and sales incentives for Windows Phone. In 2012. In the United States:

In this most crucial of markets, Microsoft has one goal and one goal only: Convince consumers to purchase millions of Windows Phone handsets in the first half of 2012. Doing so will require a new set of phones—as I exclusively detailed previously in Microsoft's LTE Plans for Windows Phone—as well as stepping up engagement with tech enthusiasts, increasing retail-worker recommendation rates through training ands sales incentives, and other means.

According to the internal Microsoft documentation I've viewed, the total cost of this marketing tsunami is in the neighborhood of $200 million, not $100 million. And again, that's just for the United States. And on AT&T at least, Nokia is outspending Microsoft 2-to-1.

Included in the plan are sales incentives for retail workers, aimed at getting them to finally start recommending Windows Phone as an alternative to Android and iPhone. The amount of payments are $10 to $15 per handset sold, depending on the number sold, for some handset models.

Consider the following:

Verizon Wireless, the largest U.S. mobile carrier, sold 4.2 million Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPhones in the fourth quarter, more than doubling from the third quarter, said Fran Shammo, finance chief of the company’s parent.

The iPhone sales will narrow gross margins at the wireless business by 500 to 600 basis points, Shammo, chief financial officer of Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), said today at a Citigroup Inc. event in San Francisco. U.S. carriers sell smartphones such as the iPhone to subscribers at a loss to get them to sign up for contracts that typically run for two years.

The demand suggests Verizon Wireless is winning an increasing share of new iPhone users, after gaining rights to offer the handset to its subscribers last year. In the third quarter, Verizon added 2 million customers for the device, trailing the 2.7 million iPhone activations at AT&T Inc. (T), which has offered the handset since 2007.

In this recent quarter. Verizon sold 4.2 million iPhones. Just Verizon. One quarter.

Dear Steve Ballmer, I bet you don't sell 4.2 million Windows Phones in the US in all of 2012.

Care to take me up on this?

Forget the $200 million marketing. Forget the sales incentives. You are in charge of Microsoft and yet somehow missed the *largest personal computing market* ever: the smartphone.

I have doubts you can ever catch up. But, I will tell you that the Windows Phone, as presently conceived, will continue to underperform even Blackberry.

You allowed iPhone and Android to own the market. To establish robust, virtuous, global ecosystems. And allowed the planet time to embrace the app as the mode of accessing the full range of what the mobile web has to offer and the app to leverage the full power of the smartphone while insisting upon a Windows Phone OS that repeatedly tells people it is not an app phone.

Tiles vs apps? Really?

That will never work.

For al that Microsoft has and for all that Microsoft can do, as we enter 2012, Microsoft has yet to establish a *single* reason why a smartphone user should choose Windows Phone. $200 million in marketing will not change this reality.

Sometimes, the failure is staring us right in the face.

I was reviewing the HTC Rezound, a new Android phone that has somehow managed to have possibly the worst name of any device on the market. No, I'm certainly not going to recommend anyone buy this device. 

Whilst mulling over how is it possible we live in a world where *anyone* might buy the Rezound (pronounced: stupid) for a on-contract price of $299.99 when iPhone 4S exists, I decided to check out what Windows Phone phones Verizon is carrying.

Not a problem.

When looking at any smartphone on the Verizon Wireless site, you merely need to scroll down the page and select the OS (or device brand) that piques your interest. You know, Apple or Android, Blackberry or HTC...

Only, there is ZERO mention of Windows Phone. Or even Microsoft. Or just Windows! Nothing!

Verizon is the biggest wireless provider in the USA. It's one of the largest wireless carriers in the world. And Windows Phone is a no show.

Dear Steve Ballmer, pay me *just half* what you're paying 3 or 4 Windows Phone employees and I'll get you more legit sales and happy customers. Promise.

In the meantime, stop being bush league.