Dear Google, show me the money! Where TechCrunch reads my stuff and clues in.

As I've been writing here for well over a year, even if *Android* is winning, and really, it's not, that does not mean that Google is winning. 

http://brianshall.com/search/node/google%20android%20search

As I have stated repeatedly, ignore the fact that Facebook is on every smartphone. Forget that *most* mobile searches come from iPhone. Pay no attention to Kindle Fire and other versions of Android that have been Google-strip-mined.

If most of the ecommerce via mobile is coming from iPhone, put it out of your head.

When you read that Sony, LG, Motorola and HTC can't make a profit from Android, assume that's a temporary blip.

All the complaining about fragmentation is not your concern.

The *fundamental* threat to Android is not from Apple or Facebook or Microsoft. That threat comes from Google, itself. From Google's past.

The smartphone is the computer! The smartphone will this year eclipse the PC install base. The mobile web is the web. Mobile searches annd activity will dominate our online activity.

Mobile is not a *supplement* to the PC, it is a replacement.

All of Google's money comes from the PC and the stationary web. 

They make billions upon billions of dollars, every quarter, from ads on PC web pages and on Youtube videos.

But there is *zero* guarantee that these ads and this business model will provide more or even the same revenues. 

Android could generate ten times more traffic, 100x more data and provide far more real-time, localized, personalized information to Google. Which ought to make Google more valuable.

But Google is not valuable because of all the personal information it has on each of us. Google is valuable because it's business model, of selling all that personal information to advertisers happy to pay it because enough users will click on the ads which provide value to the advertisers is optimized for a world that is dying: PCs and the stationary web.

Who says Google can simply port its business model to the smartphone?

Facebook makes almost nothing off the smartphone. Twitter makes nothing off the smartphone. Apple makes all its smartphone money off the hardware itself, not the software and services.

Google has the greatest business model ever. But it was born for a world that is quickly coming to an end. 

Even TechCrunch finally clues in:

Google’s reliance on search revenues derived from web searches in a browser, its former strength, is now not sufficient to guarantee growth.

Google’s focus on Android is a necessary but not sufficient part of confronting these trends. It gives the company a platform into mobile, but it does not do enough to offset the impact of the relative shift in traffic. 

I'm never surprised when I call it first. Or when I get it completely right.  I must say, though, that it always surprises me how long it takes the kool-aid drinkers to catch up.