Five Reasons Why Microsoft's Windows Phone Will Make A Big Splash In The Smartphone Market. Or not.
It's CES time! The giant CES consumer electronics trade show is underway in Las Vegas. As is typical, that means a full-court press from Microsoft public relations, which means you will be exposed to many loving, glowing articles about Microsoft and all its cool products for the next several days.
Today's example, from Forbes: Five Reasons Why Microsoft's Windows Phone Will Make A Big Splash In The Smartphone Market
"Here are five reasons why Microsoft is going to edge its way into the smartphone market in 2012."
Well, let's just see about that now, shall we? After all, I think Microsoft has fiddled while the global smartphone wars have burned, and the results bear this out. Almost no one on the planet, outside of the tiny burg of Redmond, Washington, has actually purchased a Windows Phone phone.
Nonetheless, I remain hopeful. Microsoft is a leading American company, after all. I believe smartphones are the future and, while it's true America can't actuallly build the damn things, we could, should Microsoft succeed, control the top four smartphone platforms on the planet (iOS, Android, Amazon Android, Windows Phone), along with the most powerful non-Chinese social media platforms (Twitter, Facebook).
Here are Forbes' five reasons, presented in their original overly capitalized form:
- Windows Phone Has A Totally Unique UI
- Originality Means Fewer Forays Into The Patent Wars
- Uniformity Across All Devices and Carriers
- Zune Is Baked Right Into the Operating System
- Xbox Live Gaming Support
Well, it's five, at least. They got that much right. But let's examine in a bit more detail:
"Windows Phone has a totally unique UI"
True. I've said before that the Windows Phone UI is essentially the Blackberry UI well ported to a full touchscreen device. I've also said, however, that the world has embraced the app phone. The Windows UI, for all its strengths, pushes a variety of real-time information and access points to the 'home' screen while at the same time diminishing the presence of the app.
I'm convinced this will appeal to a segment of the current and potential user base. I'm not convinced, however, that such a segment will ever be more than about 5%. Microsoft will not accept 5%. Nor 10%. Possibly not even 20%. They don't even understand how to accept such a small share of a personal computing operating platform market.
"Originality Means Fewer Forays Into The Patent Wars"
Well, perhaps. Microsoft will certainly sue others who (may) infringe on their patents. Microsoft has a stellar reputation for spending on R&D. So, yes, this probably means something positive. It's not as if we should expect some judge of some ruling body in some foreign country to do much harm to the Windows Phone platform. That does not mean, however, that this will lead anyone to choose Windows Phone. Microsoft already collects licensing fees from numerous Android handset makers. It's free money, true, even if little more than lunch money for Microsoft. But it has yet to lead to an actual sale.
"Uniformity Across All Devices and Carriers"
The reason the never truly open Android gets more closed every day is because of all the very real frustrations of Android users unable to get the latest version of Android -- or use it -- or use the same apps or have the latest, bestest Google services. Because any device maker can ignore the latest and bestest once they have completed a sale. Microsoft demands *all* Windows Phone devices meet certain specifications. As Forbes says, this should help sales, at least over the long-term.
Except that it may not. With Google's acquisition of Motorola, Android users can likely take comfort in knowing that Google requires every (generation of) Moto devices to adhere to strict standards. Any Android handset maker can set itself apart from all others by pledging the same.
"Zune Is Baked Right Into the Operating System"
Well now Forbes is just fucking with us. Next.
"Xbox Live Gaming Support"
Not relevant. While in theory, Microsoft could make a better, more current version of Xbox Live available for its Windows Phone platform, the company has no rational choice but to offer the very best Xbox Live support to iPhone and Android. These smartphone platforms -- which are also their own gaming systems -- have sold in the hundreds of millions. Soon, the number will be over 1 billion, then over 2 billion, etc. Microsoft can't ignore those numbers unless they want to make Xbox irrelevant.
Verdict: Go test drive a Windows Phone. I think you will like it. But I suspect Microsoft will spend more on Windows Phone (and its progeny) than they have spent on Bing and online services the past decade. And come away with an even smaller market share.