the smartphone wars

$GOOG $600

I believe Google announces its quarterly earnings next week. I am expecting good things. 

What I am not expecting, however, is for Google to offer any real numbers on any real or expected revenues related to anything they've built and/or acquired since the closing days of th Clinton Administration.

Google is not a one-trick pony. They are a one-trick fucking goose that lays golden eggs. Which is better, let's face it. Still, it's not everything.

And despite how smart they tell us they are, the only way Google makes money -- and they make lots of it -- is the same way they always have. Ads on computer screen; mostly, text-based ads on Google.com searches presented on computer screens.

And that world is dying. Larry Page knows this. If he were allowed to speak, Sergey Brin would tell you he knows this. That's why Page is re-focuing his team, focusing on big bets, spending billions to buy Motorola, giving still more shit away, trying to kill off Yelp and Groupon and Facebook and Twitter and iOS by any means necessary, government inquiries, be damned. They can't let anyone get between you and your data that is not them. 

Problem is, of course, that they never really understood social -- or the power of Facebook. They badliy misunderestimated services like Yelp and Groupon. Despite *giving away* Android, the best smartphone and tablets do not use it: iPhone, iPad and the Android-in-name-only Kindle Fire.

Being smarter than all of us still doesn't allow you to see into the future. At least, not in Google's case. Because for all their money they've spent the past ten years following. Android is no exception. And right now, it's still one more counter to a world that refuses to stay in the 1990s.