the smartphone wars

Still more on the death of Microsoft

A year ago I started my TECHNOLOGY RANKINGS list and included a "dinosaur watch" list as well. Windows was one of the first to earn this shameful distinction. There was much mockery of me for this. But, let me say this. Yes, I was right. I never had any doubts. But, the larger takeaway for you, dear reader, is why.

I was right about Windows (and others on the list) because smartphones and the mobile web are remaking the computing, communications and content industries (hint: and everything else). I did not place Windows nor any other company on that list because I didn't like them or the product. Rather, I use factors that look at just how smartphones are and will alter daily life and how this changes everything. In this new world, Windows cannot survive. A lot of what we've come to know and love (or not) cannot survive.

Now, a year later, and, gosh I hope you didn't buy $MSFT thinking it was undervalued, the new new reality has become obvious even to organizations like CNN:

Six months after Apple's (AAPL, Fortune 500) release of the iPad, Microsoft still has virtually no presence in the tablet market. And its strategy for taking on Apple -- Windows 7 on a tablet, rather than a tablet-specific operating system -- is leaving potential partners cold. Lenovo's technology director recently told PC Mag that his company won't be building around the platform: "The challenge with Windows 7 is that it's based on the same paradigm as 1985 -- it's really an interface that's optimized for a mouse and keyboard."

Then there's the epicenter of the Microsoft universe: Windows. Microsoft likes to point out that its operating system is its biggest consumer brand and Windows 7 has been selling rapidly. Its new version has sold 240 million licenses in a year, making it the fastest-selling OS in Microsoft's history.

But Windows' momentum isn't from consumers. In fact, consumers are a worry for the Windows division, because they have dramatically slowed their purchases of PCs in recent months.

Rather, the fast sales are coming from businesses, which significantly delayed their purchases of new Windows licenses because Windows Vista was bug-ridden mess. Then the recession hit. A years-overdue corporate PC refresh cycle is now happening all at once.