The destruction of Blackberry

[28 April 2011: Brian: I am re-posting this. Reader IPHONED estimated the product mix from America's largest carriers, A&T and Verizion, following their Q1 2011 earnings report. They are the best estimates I've seen. My only caveat, which I placed at the bottom of the original post, was that perhaps he was undercounting Android and overcounting Blackberry -- at a meager 20% share.

I now suspect this is so. $RIMM just got decimated after telling Wall Street that Q2 sales, revenues, units sold and APRU would be lower than expected.]

Thankfully, both Verizon Wireless and AT&T want us both to know that they are selling lots of iPhones. That existing AT&T iPhone customers aren't rushing into the arms of the better, faster Verizon. That AT&T's ads reminding us that we can't talk and surf at the same time aren't going to prevent Verizon from (soon) taking the iPhone crown.

Other numbers, however, we do not have. What, exactly, is the mix of smartphones that Verizon, now with iPhone, and AT&T, no longer with iPhone exclusivity are selling?

Answer: I don't know. But, reader iPhoned (the original) looks at the Q1 earnings report from both carriers and offers the best breakdown I've seen:

1. Looks like iPhone was 65% of total smartphone ATT sales in Q1. (3.6m out of 5.5m). 
2. They didn't report total Android, but assuming Blackberry was 20%, Android was probably around 0.8m or 15%.
3. It looks like iPhone was 45% of total ATT phone sales for the quarter. It is unclear if that percentage is growing substantially or stabilized.
4. Verizon, I think actually did better then ATT with iPhone on a pro-forma basis. 2.2 iphones were sold in 7 weeks technically, but in reality more like in 6 weeks, because it took a while to get full distribution in place. So even discounting out the one-time-pent-up-surge, Verizon iPhone run-rate sales are probably above ATT's.
5. Verizon said half of their phone sales were smartphone. Assuming quarterly sales of about 8m phones, that give about 4m smartphones. Of which 2.2 were iPhones - 55% share based on a less then full-quarter sales.
6. If Blackberry about 20%, then this leaves 25% for Android or 1m units - a drastic drop in Android sales and marketshare on Verizon from the quarter before.
7. The only two numbers that are "estimates" are Blackberry sales and total phone sales for Verizon and ATT. But ATT reported total phone sales of 8m in Q3 last year, so the Q1 total phone sales are probably not that much different. 
8. Also, Verizon total phone sales are about same as ATT so I used 8m total phone sales for Verizon as well. The margin for error on both is probably +1m.

What do I think?

I think that's a damn fine job. With one caveat: I think Blackberry's market share -- in the US, with the biggest carriers -- is falling much faster than I had expected. And even lower than iPhoned's 20% benchmark.