They said I was mad! Mad! On the death of Windows.

Back in 2009, both Windows and Office went on my Technology Deathwatch list. Looking at the potential for smartphones, how smartphones and the mobile web would remake 'personal computing', I estimated that by no later than 2016, Windows and Office would be marginalized.

Nothing I've written on this site has generated so much negativity and name calling. 

You're stupid! Those make billions! There are a billion PCs in the world and almost everyone has Windows -- and Office! Did I say you were stupid!

Yeah, yeah. I'm the crazy one. Except, it's only mid-2011 and check out Asymco's post today:

Platform year-on-year growth was Windows: +1.3%, OS X: +26%, iOS: +170%. Android growth cannot yet be measured since Android tablets have not been on the market for more than 1 year.

The picture that emerges is that while Windows continues to be dominant with 84% of units sold in the last quarter, the growth belongs to tablets which captured about 90% of it. If Windows remains marginal on tablets, the “PC market” will likely tip away from Microsoft in two years (depending on how quickly Apple can build iPads.)

Microsoft is making the commitment to move Windows to a tablet form factor but they are doing it while retaining the user interaction model of a desktop. This may or may not work but they are also conceding that a separate experience is also necessary. By rejecting the notion that a mobile OS alone can do the job, they are essentially building a “hybrid” tablet/laptop/desktop product which may be challenging to use but preserve their presence in the form factor.

2016. Windows and Office will be irrelevant.