When Apple releases iPhone 5 will any Android smartphone be as good as iPhone 4?
In my Smartphone Rankings, iPhone 4 sits atop the leaderboard, and has for quite some time. Despite the biases inherent in any rankings methodology, or ranker, I believe my smartphone rankings are a useful represenation of what the typical smartphone buyer needs, wants and must reckon with.
In the rankings, equally weighted factors include:
- Usability
- Productivity
- Content
- Network
- and other factors, including "Desire" which represents how much a person or persons covet a particular device, which typically is much higher for a device that is new, sexy, heavily marketed, innovative, different.
After iPhone, my favorite device is probably the latest Blackberry Bold. I also like the Nokia N8 and, yes, pretty much every high-end Sony Ericsson device (which now are Androids).
That said, I try to rank each device fairly and fully, mindful of what's best for users. In the rankings, you'll notice there are numerous Android devices in the top 10 and, not surprisingly given how many Android smartphones there are, more Androids have been scored than any other platform type.
Only, a year in and I'm still waiting for an Adroid smartphone, any Android smartphone, to tie or even surpass iPhone 4. None have been up to the challenge. A few have come close, such as the Motorola Atrix and the Samsung Galaxy S. Still, the iPhone 4 rules.
Which led me to thinking: what happens when iPhone 5 is released? Will any Android have caught up to iPhone 4 by that time? Despite all that they keep throwing at the current iPhone standard-bearer, no Android has succeeded. Perhaps none ever will.
Which creates a huge opportunity for Apple. As they have done before, it seems logical to assume that once iPhone 5 is released, no matter how great or awful it is, that iPhone 4 will continue to be sold -- for the price of $99. Right now, I gave iPhone 4 a measly ** (2 stars) out of a possible 5 in the AFFORDABILITY factor. At $99, I'd almost certainly boost that to **** (4 stars).
Of course, I would probably reduce the DESIRE score. It's currently 4 stars and I would reduce that, based on market conditions at the time, to anywhere from 1 star to 3 stars. Meaning, when iPhone 5 is released, the iPhone 4 could nonetheless be re-scored as high as a 38, and likely no worse than a 36.
The best *any* Android device has ever done is a 34.
I realize that at this level, factors separating one device from another are difficult to quantify -- or justify. Still, I find it remarkable that we could be into 2012, and the very best Android device, per my rankings, will still not be as good as the iPhone 4.
Which will cost $99.
And be on as many or more carriers as it is now. And sold from as many locations or more as it is now.
I'd say that analyst statements that iPhone's market share will not grow, or that iPhone's market share relative to Android's will not grow, are badly misplaced.